1. Polysilicon kev lag luam saw: cov txheej txheem ntau lawm yog complex, thiab downstream tsom rau photovoltaic semiconductors
Polysilicon feem ntau yog tsim los ntawm kev lag luam silicon, chlorine thiab hydrogen, thiab nyob rau sab saud ntawm photovoltaic thiab semiconductor kev lag luam chains.Raws li CPIA cov ntaub ntawv, tam sim no lub ntsiab polysilicon ntau lawm txoj kev nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no yog hloov Siemens txoj kev, tshwj tsis yog rau Tuam Tshoj, ntau tshaj 95% ntawm cov polysilicon yog tsim los ntawm cov hloov Siemens txoj kev.Nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm kev npaj polysilicon los ntawm kev txhim kho Siemens txoj kev, thawj zaug, chlorine gas yog ua ke nrog hydrogen gas los tsim hydrogen chloride, thiab ces nws reacts nrog silicon hmoov tom qab crushing thiab sib tsoo ntawm industrial silicon los tsim trichlorosilane, uas yog ntxiv txo los ntawm hydrogen gas los tsim polysilicon.Polycrystalline silicon tuaj yeem yaj thiab txias los ua polycrystalline silicon ingots, thiab monocrystalline silicon tuaj yeem tsim los ntawm Czochralski lossis cheeb tsam melting.Piv nrog polycrystalline silicon, ib leeg siv lead ua silicon yog tsim los ntawm cov khoom siv lead ua nrog tib lub siv lead ua kev taw qhia, yog li nws muaj qhov zoo ntawm hluav taws xob conductivity thiab kev hloov dua siab tshiab.Ob leeg polycrystalline silicon ingots thiab monocrystalline silicon rods tuaj yeem raug txiav thiab ua tiav rau hauv silicon wafers thiab hlwb, uas dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm photovoltaic modules thiab siv nyob rau hauv photovoltaic teb.Tsis tas li ntawd, ib leeg siv lead ua silicon wafers kuj tuaj yeem tsim rau hauv silicon wafers los ntawm kev sib tsoo, polishing, epitaxy, tu thiab lwm yam txheej txheem, uas tuaj yeem siv los ua cov khoom siv substrate rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor.
Cov ntsiab lus ntawm polysilicon impurity yog nruj me ntsis yuav tsum tau, thiab kev lag luam muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm cov peev peev thiab siab technical barriers.Txij li thaum lub purity ntawm polysilicon yuav cuam tshuam rau ib leeg siv lead ua silicon daim duab txheej txheem, purity yuav tsum nruj heev.Qhov tsawg kawg nkaus purity ntawm polysilicon yog 99.9999%, thiab qhov siab tshaj plaws yog infinitely ze rau 100%.Tsis tas li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj cov qauv hauv lub tebchaws tau muab cov kev xav tau meej meej rau cov ntsiab lus tsis huv, thiab raws li qhov no, polysilicon tau muab faib ua qib I, II, thiab III, uas cov ntsiab lus ntawm boron, phosphorus, oxygen thiab carbon yog ib qho tseem ceeb siv Performance index."Polysilicon Industry Access Conditions" qhia tias cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum muaj kev tshuaj xyuas zoo thiab kev tswj hwm, thiab cov qauv khoom nruj me ntsis ua raws li lub teb chaws cov qauv;Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, cov kev pab cuam kuj yuav tsum tau lub teev thiab lub zog noj ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm cov lag luam, xws li hnub ci-qib, hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon Qhov project scale yog ntau tshaj 3000 tons / xyoo thiab 1000 tons / xyoo raws li, thiab qhov tsawg kawg nkaus peev piv. nyob rau hauv kev nqis peev ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev nthuav dav yuav tsum tsis txhob qis dua 30%, yog li polysilicon yog ib qho kev lag luam loj heev.Raws li CPIA cov txheeb cais, cov peev txheej ntawm 10,000-tuj polysilicon ntau lawm kab khoom siv rau kev ua haujlwm hauv 2021 tau nce me ntsis mus rau 103 lab yuan / kt.Yog vim li cas yog qhov nce ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hlau ntau.Nws cia siab tias tus nqi peev yav tom ntej yuav nce ntxiv nrog rau kev nce qib ntawm cov cuab yeej siv tshuab thiab monomer txo qis raws li qhov loj me.Raws li cov kev cai, lub zog noj ntawm polysilicon rau hnub ci-qib thiab hluav taws xob-qib Czochralski txo yuav tsum tsawg dua 60 kWh / kg thiab 100 kWh / kg feem, thiab cov kev cai rau kev siv hluav taws xob ntsuas kuj tseem nruj.Polysilicon ntau lawm feem ntau koom nrog kev lag luam tshuaj.Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm yog qhov nyuaj, thiab qhov pib ntawm txoj kev, kev xaiv khoom, commissioning thiab kev ua haujlwm siab.Cov txheej txheem tsim khoom muaj ntau yam tshuaj lom neeg cov tshuaj tiv thaiv, thiab tus naj npawb ntawm cov tshuaj tswj tau ntau dua 1,000.Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau cov neeg tuaj tshiab sai sai masters paub tab craftsmanship.Yog li ntawd, muaj cov peev txheej siab thiab kev cuam tshuam hauv kev lag luam polysilicon ntau lawm, uas tseem txhawb nqa cov tuam txhab polysilicon kom ua tiav cov txheej txheem kev ua kom zoo ntawm cov txheej txheem ntws, ntim thiab kev thauj mus los.
2. Polysilicon kev faib tawm: purity txiav txim siab siv, thiab hnub ci qib occupies lub ntsiab
Polycrystalline silicon, ib daim ntawv ntawm elemental silicon, yog tsim los ntawm cov khoom siv lead ua nrog cov siv lead ua sib txawv, thiab feem ntau yog purified los ntawm kev lag luam silicon.Cov tsos ntawm polysilicon yog grey metallic luster, thiab lub melting point yog hais txog 1410 ℃.Nws yog inactive nyob rau hauv chav tsev kub thiab ntau active nyob rau hauv lub molten lub xeev.Polysilicon muaj cov khoom siv semiconductor thiab yog ib qho tseem ceeb heev thiab zoo heev cov khoom siv semiconductor, tab sis me me ntawm impurities tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau nws cov conductivity.Muaj ntau ntau txoj kev faib rau polysilicon.Ntxiv rau qhov kev faib tawm saum toj no raws li Tuam Tshoj tus qauv hauv lub tebchaws, peb txoj kev faib tawm tseem ceeb ntxiv tau qhia ntawm no.Raws li cov kev cai purity sib txawv thiab kev siv, polysilicon tuaj yeem muab faib ua hnub ci-qib polysilicon thiab hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon.Hnub ci-qib polysilicon feem ntau yog siv rau hauv kev tsim cov cell photovoltaic, thaum hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon yog dav siv nyob rau hauv kev lag luam kev sib koom ua ke ua raw khoom rau chips thiab lwm yam khoom.Lub purity ntawm hnub ci-qib polysilicon yog 6 ~ 8N, uas yog, tag nrho cov impurity ntsiab lus yuav tsum tau qis dua 10 -6, thiab purity ntawm polysilicon yuav tsum mus txog 99.9999% los yog ntau tshaj.Cov kev cai purity ntawm hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon yog nruj dua, nrog qhov tsawg kawg nkaus ntawm 9N thiab qhov siab tshaj plaws tam sim no ntawm 12N.Kev tsim hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon yog qhov nyuaj.Muaj ob peb lub tuam txhab hauv Suav teb uas tau paub txog kev tsim cov tshuab hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon, thiab lawv tseem nyob ntawm kev xa khoom.Tam sim no, cov zis ntawm hnub ci-qib polysilicon ntau dua li ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon, thiab qhov qub yog li ntawm 13.8 npaug ntawm qhov kawg.
Raws li qhov sib txawv ntawm doping impurities thiab conductivity hom ntawm silicon khoom, nws yuav muab faib ua P-hom thiab N-hom.Thaum silicon doped nrog impurity ntsiab, xws li boron, txhuas, gallium, thiab lwm yam, nws yog dominated los ntawm qhov conduction thiab yog P-hom.Thaum silicon yog doped nrog tus neeg pub khoom impurity, xws li phosphorus, arsenic, antimony, thiab lwm yam, nws yog dominated los ntawm electron conduction thiab yog N-hom.P-hom roj teeb feem ntau suav nrog BSF roj teeb thiab PERC roj teeb.Xyoo 2021, PERC roj teeb yuav suav txog ntau dua 91% ntawm lub lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab BSF roj teeb yuav raug tshem tawm.Thaum lub sijhawm PERC hloov BSF, kev hloov pauv ntawm P-hom hlwb tau nce los ntawm tsawg dua 20% mus rau ntau dua 23%, uas tab tom yuav mus txog qhov kev txwv siab tshaj ntawm 24.5%, thaum lub theoretical sab sauv txwv ntawm N- hom hlwb yog 28.7%, thiab N-hom hlwb muaj kev hloov pauv siab, Vim qhov zoo ntawm qhov sib piv siab bifacial thiab qis kub coefficient, cov tuam txhab tau pib xa cov kab ntau lawm rau N-hom roj teeb.Raws li CPIA qhov kev kwv yees, qhov feem ntawm N-hom roj teeb yuav nce ntxiv los ntawm 3% mus rau 13.4% hauv 2022. Nws xav tias nyob rau hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no, iteration ntawm N-hom roj teeb rau P-hom roj teeb yuav raug coj mus rau hauv. . Raws li qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov zoo, nws tuaj yeem muab faib ua cov khoom ntom ntom, cov khoom siv paj ntoo thiab cov khoom siv coral.Qhov saum npoo ntawm cov khoom ntom ntom ntom dua muaj qhov qis tshaj plaws ntawm kev sib hais, tsawg dua 5 hli, tsis muaj xim txawv txav, tsis muaj oxidation interlayer, thiab tus nqi siab tshaj plaws;qhov saum npoo ntawm cov khoom siv paj ntoo muaj qhov nruab nrab ntawm concavity, 5-20mm, seem yog nruab nrab, thiab tus nqi yog nruab nrab;thaum lub ntsej muag ntawm cov khoom siv coral muaj ntau qhov concavity, Qhov tob yog ntau dua 20mm, seem yog xoob, thiab tus nqi qis tshaj.Cov khoom siv ntom ntom feem ntau yog siv los kos monocrystalline silicon, thaum cov khoom siv paj ntoo thiab cov khoom siv coral feem ntau yog siv los ua polycrystalline silicon wafers.Hauv kev tsim khoom txhua hnub ntawm cov tuam txhab, cov khoom siv ntom ntom tuaj yeem doped nrog tsis pub tsawg dua 30% cov khoom lag luam los tsim monocrystalline silicon.Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw tuaj yeem txuag tau, tab sis kev siv cov khoom siv paj ntoo yuav txo cov siv lead ua rub tawm mus rau qee yam.Cov lag luam yuav tsum xaiv qhov tsim nyog doping piv tom qab hnyav ob.Tsis ntev los no, tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv ntom ntom thiab cov zaub mov paj dawb muaj yeej ruaj khov ntawm 3 RMB / KG.Yog tias tus nqi sib txawv tau nthuav dav ntxiv, cov tuam txhab tuaj yeem xav txog doping ntau cov khoom lag luam zaub paj hauv monocrystalline silicon rub.
3. Txheej txheem: Siemens txoj kev nyob hauv lub ntsiab, thiab kev siv hluav taws xob ua tus yuam sij rau kev hloov pauv.
Cov txheej txheem ntau lawm ntawm polysilicon yog roughly muab faib ua ob kauj ruam.Nyob rau hauv thawj kauj ruam, muaj silicon hmoov yog reacted nrog anhydrous hydrogen chloride kom tau trichlorosilane thiab hydrogen.Tom qab rov qab distillation thiab purification, gaseous trichlorosilane, dichlorodihydrosilicon thiab Silane;Cov kauj ruam thib ob yog los txo cov roj purity uas tau hais los saum toj no rau crystalline silicon, thiab cov kauj ruam txo yog qhov sib txawv ntawm cov kev hloov Siemens thiab txoj kev silane fluidized txaj.Txoj kev txhim kho Siemens muaj cov cuab yeej tsim khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam zoo, thiab tam sim no yog cov cuab yeej siv ntau tshaj plaws.Txoj kev tsim Siemens ib txwm siv yog siv cov tshuaj chlorine thiab hydrogen los ua cov tshuaj anhydrous hydrogen chloride, hydrogen chloride thiab hmoov muaj silicon los ua ke trichlorosilane ntawm qhov kub thiab txias, thiab tom qab ntawd cais, kho thiab ntxuav cov trichlorosilane.Lub silicon tau txais cov tshuaj tiv thaiv thermal txo nyob rau hauv lub cub tawg hydrogen kom tau txais cov khoom siv silicon tso rau ntawm cov tub ntxhais silicon.Raws li lub hauv paus no, cov txheej txheem Siemens txhim kho kuj tseem muaj cov txheej txheem txhawb nqa rau kev rov ua dua cov khoom lag luam loj xws li hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, thiab silicon tetrachloride uas tsim nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem ntau lawm, feem ntau suav nrog txo tus Tsov tus tw roj rov qab thiab silicon tetrachloride rov qab siv dua. tshuab.Hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, trichlorosilane, thiab silicon tetrachloride nyob rau hauv cov pa pa yog cais los ntawm qhuav rov qab.Hydrogen thiab hydrogen chloride tuaj yeem rov qab siv tau rau kev sib txuas thiab ua kom huv nrog trichlorosilane, thiab trichlorosilane ncaj qha rov ua dua rau hauv thermal txo.Kev lim dej yog nqa tawm hauv qhov cub, thiab silicon tetrachloride yog hydrogenated los tsim trichlorosilane, uas tuaj yeem siv rau kev ua kom huv.Cov kauj ruam no tseem hu ua kev kho mob khaub thuas hydrogenation.Los ntawm kev paub txog kev tsim hluav taws xob kaw, cov lag luam tuaj yeem txo qis kev noj cov khoom siv raw thiab hluav taws xob, yog li txuag cov nqi tsim khoom.
Tus nqi ntawm kev tsim polysilicon siv txoj kev txhim kho Siemens hauv Suav teb suav nrog cov khoom siv raw, kev siv hluav taws xob, kev txo nqi, kev ua cov nqi, thiab lwm yam.Cov ntaub ntawv raw feem ntau yog xa mus rau kev lag luam silicon thiab trichlorosilane, kev siv lub zog suav nrog hluav taws xob thiab chav, thiab cov nqi ua haujlwm xa mus rau kev tshuaj xyuas thiab kho cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv.Raws li Baichuan Yingfu cov txheeb cais ntawm polysilicon cov nqi tsim khoom thaum lub Rau Hli 2022, cov khoom siv raw yog cov khoom siv siab tshaj plaws, suav txog 41% ntawm tag nrho cov nqi, ntawm cov khoom siv silicon yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm silicon.Cov khoom siv silicon feem ntau siv hauv kev lag luam sawv cev rau tus nqi ntawm silicon noj ib chav tsev ntawm cov khoom siv roj hmab siab.Txoj kev suav yog hloov tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv uas muaj silicon xws li outsourced industrial silicon hmoov thiab trichlorosilane rau hauv silicon ntshiab, thiab ces txiav tawm cov outsourced chlorosilane raws li tus nqi ntawm cov ntshiab silicon hloov los ntawm silicon cov ntsiab lus piv.Raws li CPIA cov ntaub ntawv, qib ntawm silicon noj yuav poob los ntawm 0.01 kg / kg-Si mus rau 1.09 kg / kg-Si hauv 2021. Nws xav tias nrog kev txhim kho ntawm kev kho mob khaub thuas hydrogenation thiab cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab, nws yuav tsum tau ua. txo mus rau 1.07 kg / kg los ntawm 2030. kg-Si.Raws li kev txheeb cais tsis tiav, silicon noj ntawm tsib lub tuam txhab Suav saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kev lag luam polysilicon yog qis dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam.Nws paub tias ob tug ntawm lawv yuav haus 1.08 kg/kg-Si thiab 1.05 kg/kg-Si raws li nyob rau hauv 2021. Qhov thib ob feem ntau yog siv zog, accounting rau 32% nyob rau hauv tag nrho, ntawm uas hluav taws xob account rau 30% ntawm cov tag nrho cov nqi, qhia tias tus nqi hluav taws xob thiab kev ua haujlwm tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev tsim khoom ntawm polysilicon.Ob lub cim tseem ceeb los ntsuas qhov kev siv hluav taws xob yog kev siv hluav taws xob zoo thiab txo qis kev siv hluav taws xob.Kev siv hluav taws xob txo qis yog hais txog cov txheej txheem ntawm kev txo qis trichlorosilane thiab hydrogen los tsim cov khoom siv silicon siab.Lub zog noj muaj xws li silicon core preheating thiab deposition., kev txuag hluav taws xob, qhov kawg qhov cua thiab lwm yam kev siv hluav taws xob.Nyob rau hauv 2021, nrog kev vam meej technology thiab kev siv lub zog, qhov nruab nrab kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm yuav txo los ntawm 5.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo mus rau 63kWh / kg-Si, thiab qhov nruab nrab txo hwj chim noj yuav txo los ntawm 6.1% xyoo- on-xyoo mus rau 46kWh / kg-Si, uas xav tias yuav txo qis ntxiv rau yav tom ntej..Tsis tas li ntawd, kev txo nqi kuj yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi, suav txog 17%.Nws yog ib nqi sau cia hais tias, raws li Baichuan Yingfu cov ntaub ntawv, tag nrho cov nqi ntawm polysilicon nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov Lub rau hli ntuj 2022 yog hais txog 55,816 yuan / ton, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm polysilicon nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam yog kwv yees li 260,000 yuan / ton, thiab tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los. siab li 70% lossis ntau dua, yog li nws tau nyiam ntau lub tuam txhab lag luam nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho ntawm polysilicon muaj peev xwm ntau lawm.
Muaj ob txoj hauv kev rau cov tuam txhab polysilicon kom txo cov nqi, ib qho yog txo cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, thiab lwm yam yog txo qis kev siv hluav taws xob.Hais txog cov khoom siv raw, cov tuam txhab tuaj yeem txo tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw los ntawm kev kos npe rau kev koom tes ntev nrog cov tuam txhab lag luam silicon, los yog tsim kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov dej ntws.Piv txwv li, polysilicon ntau lawm cov nroj tsuag cia siab rau lawv tus kheej cov khoom siv silicon.Hais txog kev siv hluav taws xob, cov tuam txhab lag luam tuaj yeem txo cov nqi hluav taws xob los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob qis thiab kev txhim kho kev siv hluav taws xob zoo.Kwv yees li 70% ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob tag nrho yog txo qis kev siv hluav taws xob, thiab kev txo qis kuj yog qhov txuas tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim cov high-purity crystalline silicon.Yog li ntawd, feem ntau polysilicon muaj peev xwm ntau lawm nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yog concentrated nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam uas tsis tshua muaj nqi hluav taws xob xws li Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan thiab Yunnan.Txawm li cas los xij, nrog rau kev nce qib ntawm ob-carbon txoj cai, nws yog qhov nyuaj kom tau txais cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsawg tsawg.Yog li ntawd, kev txo qis kev siv hluav taws xob rau kev txo qis yog kev txo nqi ntau dua niaj hnub no.Txoj kev.Tam sim no, txoj hauv kev zoo los txo qis kev siv hluav taws xob yog txhawm rau nce tus naj npawb ntawm silicon cores hauv qhov txo qhov cub, yog li nthuav tawm cov zis ntawm ib chav tsev.Tam sim no, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txo qis hauv Suav teb yog 36 khub pas nrig, 40 khub pas nrig thiab 48 khub pas nrig.Lub tshuab hluav taws xob tau hloov kho mus rau 60 khub ntawm cov pas nrig thiab 72 khub ntawm cov pas nrig, tab sis tib lub sijhawm, nws tseem tso siab rau cov kev xav tau siab dua rau qib kev tsim khoom ntawm kev lag luam.
Piv nrog rau txoj kev txhim kho Siemens, silane fluidized txaj txoj kev muaj peb qhov zoo, ib qho yog siv hluav taws xob tsawg, lwm qhov yog siab siv lead ua rub tawm, thiab qhov thib peb yog qhov zoo dua los ua ke nrog ntau dua CCZ txuas ntxiv Czochralski thev naus laus zis.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Silicon Industry Branch, kev siv hluav taws xob dav dav ntawm silane fluidized txaj txoj kev yog 33.33% ntawm Siemens txoj kev txhim kho, thiab txo qis zog noj yog 10% ntawm txoj kev txhim kho Siemens.Txoj kev silane fluidized txaj muaj qhov zoo ntawm kev siv zog.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm siv lead ua rub, lub cev muaj zog ntawm granular silicon tuaj yeem ua rau nws yooj yim dua rau tag nrho cov quartz crucible nyob rau hauv ib qho siv lead ua silicon rub qws txuas.Polycrystalline silicon thiab granular silicon tuaj yeem ua rau kom lub qhov cub hluav taws xob muaj peev xwm them tau los ntawm 29%, thaum txo lub sijhawm them nyiaj los ntawm 41%, txhim kho qhov rub tawm ntawm ib leeg siv lead ua silicon.Tsis tas li ntawd, granular silicon muaj ib txoj kab uas hla me me thiab zoo fluidity, uas yog ntau haum rau CCZ nruam Czochralski txoj kev.Tam sim no, cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb ntawm ib qho siv lead ua rub tawm hauv nruab nrab thiab qis qis yog RCZ ib qho siv lead ua rov ua dua tshiab, uas yog rov pub thiab rub cov siv lead ua tom qab ib qho siv lead ua silicon pas nrig rub.Kev kos duab yog nqa tawm tib lub sijhawm, uas txuag lub sijhawm txias ntawm ib leeg siv lead ua silicon pas nrig, yog li cov khoom siv tau ntau dua.Txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm CCZ nruam Czochralski txoj kev tseem yuav tsav qhov kev thov rau granular silicon.Txawm hais tias granular silicon muaj qee qhov tsis zoo, xws li ntau cov hmoov silicon tsim los ntawm kev sib txhuam, thaj chaw loj thiab yooj yim adsorption ntawm cov pa phem, thiab hydrogen ua ke rau hauv hydrogen thaum melting, uas yog ib qho yooj yim ua rau hla, tab sis raws li cov lus tshaj tawm tshiab ntawm cov granular silicon. kev lag luam, cov teeb meem no tau raug txhim kho thiab Qee qhov kev vam meej tau ua tiav.
silane fluidized txaj txheej txheem yog paub tab nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe thiab lub tebchaws United States, thiab nws yog nyob rau hauv nws cov me nyuam mos tom qab kev taw qhia ntawm Suav lag luam.Raws li thaum ntxov xyoo 1980s, txawv teb chaws granular silicon sawv cev los ntawm REC thiab MEMC pib tshawb fawb cov khoom ntawm granular silicon thiab pom tau hais tias loj-scale ntau lawm.Ntawm lawv, REC tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm granular silicon tau mus txog 10,500 tons / xyoo hauv 2010, thiab piv nrog nws cov Siemens counterparts nyob rau tib lub sij hawm, nws muaj tus nqi kom zoo dua ntawm tsawg kawg yog US $ 2-3 / kg.Vim qhov kev xav tau ntawm ib qho siv lead ua rub tawm, lub tuam txhab granular silicon ntau lawm stagnated thiab nws thiaj li nres ntau lawm, thiab tig mus rau kev koom tes nrog Tuam Tshoj los tsim ib lub tuam txhab tsim khoom los koom rau hauv kev tsim cov granular silicon.
4. Raw cov ntaub ntawv: Muaj silicon yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb, thiab cov khoom siv tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm polysilicon expansion
Muaj silicon yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau polysilicon ntau lawm.Nws cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam silicon tso zis yuav loj hlob tsis tu ncua los ntawm 2022 txog 2025. Los ntawm 2010 txog 2021, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam silicon ntau lawm yog nyob rau theem nthuav dav, nrog rau qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm cov peev txheej thiab cov khoom tawm mus txog 7.4% thiab 8.6%, feem. .Raws li SMM cov ntaub ntawv, qhov tshiab tau nceindustrial silicon muaj peev xwmHauv Suav teb yuav yog 890,000 tons thiab 1.065 lab tons hauv 2022 thiab 2023.Piv txwv tias cov tuam txhab lag luam silicon tseem yuav muaj peev xwm siv tau thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm kwv yees li 60% yav tom ntej, Tuam Tshoj tus tshiab tau nce ntxiv.Lub peev xwm ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2022 thiab 2023 yuav ua rau muaj kev tsim tawm ntawm 320,000 tons thiab 383,000 tons.Raws li kev kwv yees ntawm GFCI,Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam silicon muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 22/23/24/25 yog hais txog 5.90/697/6.71/6.5 lab tons, sib xws rau 3.55/391/4.18/4.38 lab tons.
Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm qhov seem ntawm ob qhov chaw hauv qab ntawm superimposed industrial silicon yog qhov qeeb, thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam silicon ntau lawm tuaj yeem ua tau raws li kev tsim cov polysilicon.Nyob rau hauv 2021, Tuam Tshoj tus muaj peev xwm ntawm silicon ntau lawm yuav yog 5.385 lab tons, sib xws rau cov zis ntawm 3.213 lab tons, uas polysilicon, organic silicon, thiab txhuas alloys yuav noj 623,000 tons, 898,000 tons, thiab 649,000 tons, ntsig txog.Tsis tas li ntawd, ze li ntawm 780,000 tons ntawm cov zis yog siv rau Export.Nyob rau hauv 2021, kev noj ntawm polysilicon, organic silicon, thiab txhuas alloys yuav suav rau 19%, 28%, thiab 20% ntawm industrial silicon, feem.Los ntawm 2022 txog 2025, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov organic silicon ntau lawm yuav tsum nyob twj ywm ntawm ib ncig ntawm 10%, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm aluminium alloy ntau lawm yog qis dua 5%.Yog li ntawd, peb ntseeg hais tias tus nqi ntawm industrial silicon uas yuav siv tau rau polysilicon nyob rau hauv 2022-2025 yog kuj txaus, uas muaj peev xwm ua tau raws li cov kev xav tau ntawm polysilicon.kev xav tau ntau lawm.
5. Polysilicon mov:Tuam Tshojoccupies ib tug tseem ceeb txoj hauj lwm, thiab kev tsim khoom maj mam sib sau ua ke rau cov lag luam ua lag luam
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm tau nce xyoo los ntawm lub xyoo, thiab tau maj mam sib sau ua ke hauv Suav teb.Los ntawm 2017 txog 2021, lub ntiaj teb txhua xyoo polysilicon ntau lawm tau nce los ntawm 432,000 tons rau 631,000 tons, nrog kev loj hlob sai tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo 2021, nrog kev loj hlob ntawm 21.11%.Lub sijhawm no, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm maj mam concentrated nyob rau hauv Suav teb, thiab qhov feem ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus polysilicon ntau lawm nce los ntawm 56.02% nyob rau hauv 2017 mus rau 80.03% nyob rau hauv 2021. Muab piv rau saum kaum tuam txhab uas muag nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no polysilicon ntau lawm muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 2010 thiab 2021, nws yuav ua tau. pom tias cov tuam txhab suav suav tau nce los ntawm 4 txog 8, thiab feem ntau ntawm cov peev txheej ntawm qee lub tuam txhab Asmeskas thiab Kaus Lim Kauslim tau poob qis, poob tawm ntawm kaum pawg sab saum toj, xws li HEMOLOCK, OCI, REC thiab MEMC;kev lag luam concentration tau nce ntxiv, thiab tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim tawm ntawm kaum lub tuam txhab hauv kev lag luam tau nce los ntawm 57.7% mus rau 90.3%.Xyoo 2021, muaj tsib lub tuam txhab Suav uas suav txog ntau dua 10% ntawm cov peev txheej tsim khoom, suav txog tag nrho ntawm 65.7%..Muaj peb qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon mus rau Tuam Tshoj.Ua ntej, Tuam Tshoj polysilicon manufacturers muaj qhov zoo ntawm cov khoom siv raw, hluav taws xob thiab nqi zog.Cov nyiaj ua haujlwm ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm qis dua cov neeg txawv teb chaws, yog li tag nrho cov nqi tsim khoom hauv Suav teb yog qis dua li ntawm cov teb chaws txawv teb chaws, thiab yuav poob mus ntxiv nrog kev nce qib ntawm kev siv technology;Qhov thib ob, qhov zoo ntawm Suav polysilicon cov khoom yog kev txhim kho tas li, feem ntau ntawm cov hnub ci-qib qib thawj-chav kawm, thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm siab heev yog nyob rau hauv cov kev cai purity.Kev tawg tau tsim nyob rau hauv kev tsim cov thev naus laus zis ntawm qib hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon, maj mam hloov pauv hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon rau kev xa khoom, thiab Suav cov tuam txhab lag luam tau koom tes txhawb kev tsim kho hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon tej yaam num.Kev tsim tawm ntawm silicon wafers hauv Suav teb yog ntau dua 95% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm thoob ntiaj teb, uas tau maj mam nce tus kheej txaus tus nqi ntawm polysilicon rau Tuam Tshoj, uas tau nyem rau kev lag luam ntawm cov lag luam txawv teb chaws polysilicon rau qee yam.
Txij xyoo 2017 txog 2021, cov khoom tsim tawm txhua xyoo ntawm polysilicon hauv Suav teb yuav nce tsis tu ncua, feem ntau hauv thaj chaw nplua nuj ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xws li Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, thiab Sichuan.Xyoo 2021, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv polysilicon yuav nce los ntawm 392,000 tons rau 505,000 tons, nce ntawm 28.83%.Hais txog lub peev xwm ntau lawm, Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm polysilicon feem ntau tau nce siab, tab sis nws tau poob rau xyoo 2020 vim tias qee lub tuam txhab raug kaw.Tsis tas li ntawd, lub peev xwm siv tus nqi ntawm Tuam Tshoj polysilicon tuam txhab tau nce tsis tu ncua txij li xyoo 2018, thiab kev siv peev xwm ntawm 2021 yuav ncav cuag 97.12%.Hais txog cov xeev, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv polysilicon hauv xyoo 2021 feem ntau yog tsom rau thaj chaw uas muaj hluav taws xob qis xws li Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, thiab Sichuan.Xinjiang cov zis yog 270,400 tons, uas yog ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm tag nrho cov zis hauv Suav teb.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam polysilicon yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm cov qib siab ntawm cov ntsiab lus, nrog tus nqi CR6 ntawm 77%, thiab yuav muaj kev nce ntxiv yav tom ntej.Polysilicon ntau lawm yog ib qho kev lag luam uas muaj peev txheej siab thiab muaj kev cuam tshuam siab.Qhov project tsim thiab ntau lawm lub voj voog yog feem ntau yog ob xyoos lossis ntau dua.Nws yog qhov nyuaj rau cov neeg tsim khoom tshiab nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam.Kev txiav txim siab los ntawm kev paub txog kev nthuav dav thiab cov haujlwm tshiab hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej, oligopolistic cov tuam txhab hauv kev lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv nthuav lawv lub peev xwm los ntawm kev tsim txiaj ntawm lawv tus kheej cov cuab yeej technology thiab cov txiaj ntsig zoo, thiab lawv txoj haujlwm monopoly tseem yuav nce ntxiv.
Nws tau kwv yees tias Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv polysilicon yuav ua rau muaj kev loj hlob loj los ntawm 2022 txog 2025, thiab polysilicon ntau lawm yuav ncav cuag 1.194 lab tons hauv 2025, tsav kev nthuav dav thoob ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm nplai.Xyoo 2021, nrog kev nce siab ntawm tus nqi ntawm polysilicon hauv Suav teb, cov tuam txhab loj tau nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho cov kab ntau lawm, thiab tib lub sijhawm nyiam cov tuam txhab tshiab los koom nrog kev lag luam.Txij li cov phiaj xwm polysilicon yuav siv sijhawm tsawg kawg ib thiab ib nrab mus rau ob xyoos los ntawm kev tsim kho mus rau ntau lawm, kev tsim kho tshiab hauv 2021 yuav tiav.Lub peev xwm ntau lawm yog feem ntau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv ib nrab ntawm 2022 thiab 2023. Qhov no zoo ib yam nrog cov phiaj xwm tshiab tshaj tawm los ntawm cov tuam txhab loj tam sim no.Lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab hauv 2022-2025 yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv 2022 thiab 2023. Tom qab ntawd, raws li cov khoom siv thiab kev thov ntawm polysilicon thiab tus nqi maj mam ruaj khov, tag nrho cov peev txheej hauv kev lag luam yuav maj mam ruaj khov.Down, uas yog, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tau maj mam txo qis.Tsis tas li ntawd, lub peev xwm siv tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab polysilicon tseem nyob rau theem siab hauv ob xyoos dhau los, tab sis nws yuav siv sijhawm rau kev tsim cov peev txheej ntawm cov haujlwm tshiab los nce, thiab nws yuav siv cov txheej txheem rau cov neeg tuaj tshiab los ua tus tswv. hais txog kev npaj technology.Yog li ntawd, lub peev xwm siv tus nqi ntawm cov haujlwm tshiab polysilicon nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no yuav tsawg.Los ntawm qhov no, cov khoom siv polysilicon hauv 2022-2025 tuaj yeem kwv yees tau, thiab cov khoom siv polysilicon hauv 2025 yuav tsum kwv yees li 1.194 lab tons.
Concentration ntawm txawv teb chaws ntau lawm muaj peev xwm kuj siab, thiab tus nqi thiab ceev ntawm ntau lawm nce nyob rau hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no yuav tsis siab npaum li ntawm Tuam Tshoj.Txawv teb chaws polysilicon ntau lawm muaj peev xwm yog mas concentrated nyob rau hauv plaub lub tuam txhab uas muag, thiab tus so yog tsuas yog me me peev xwm.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm lub peev xwm ntau lawm, Wacker Chem occupies ib nrab ntawm txawv teb chaws polysilicon ntau lawm muaj peev xwm.Nws cov chaw tsim khoom hauv Tebchaws Yelemees thiab Tebchaws Meskas muaj peev xwm tsim tau ntawm 60,000 tons thiab 20,000 tons, raws li.Kev nthuav dav ntawm lub ntiaj teb polysilicon muaj peev xwm ntau lawm hauv 2022 thiab dhau mus yuav ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev xa khoom ntau dhau, lub tuam txhab tseem nyob hauv lub xeev tos-thiab-saib thiab tsis tau npaj yuav ntxiv cov peev txheej tshiab.South Kauslim polysilicon loj heev OCI tau maj mam hloov nws cov hnub ci-qib polysilicon ntau lawm kab rau Malaysia thaum khaws cov thawj hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon ntau lawm kab hauv Suav teb, uas tau npaj kom ncav cuag 5,000 tons hauv 2022. OCI lub peev xwm ntau lawm hauv Malaysia yuav ncav cuag 27,000 tons thiab 30,000 tons hauv 2020 thiab 2021, ua tiav cov nqi siv hluav taws xob tsawg thiab khiav tawm Tuam Tshoj tus nqi siab ntawm polysilicon hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb.Lub tuam txhab npaj yuav tsim 95,000 tons tab sis hnub pib tsis meej.Nws xav tias yuav nce qib ntawm 5,000 tons hauv ib xyoos hauv plaub xyoos tom ntej.Lub tuam txhab Norwegian REC muaj ob lub hauv paus tsim khoom hauv Washington xeev thiab Montana, Tebchaws Asmeskas, muaj peev xwm tsim tau txhua xyoo ntawm 18,000 tons ntawm hnub ci-qib polysilicon thiab 2,000 tons ntawm hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon.REC, uas yog nyob rau hauv kev nyuaj siab nyiaj txiag, tau xaiv ncua kev tsim khoom, thiab tom qab ntawd txhawb nqa los ntawm kev nthuav dav hauv cov nqi polysilicon hauv 2021, lub tuam txhab txiav txim siab rov pib tsim khoom ntawm 18,000 tons ntawm cov haujlwm hauv xeev Washington thiab 2,000 tons hauv Montana thaum kawg ntawm 2023. , thiab tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov kev txhim kho ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm hauv 2024. Hemlock yog tus tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws polysilicon hauv Tebchaws Meskas, tshwj xeeb hauv high-purity electronic-grade polysilicon.Cov txheej txheem high-tech teeb meem rau ntau lawm ua rau nws nyuaj rau lub tuam txhab cov khoom yuav tsum tau hloov nyob rau hauv lub lag luam.Ua ke nrog qhov tseeb tias lub tuam txhab tsis npaj yuav tsim cov haujlwm tshiab hauv ob peb xyoos, nws xav tias lub tuam txhab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm yuav yog 2022-2025.Cov zis txhua xyoo tseem nyob ntawm 18,000 tons.Tsis tas li ntawd, xyoo 2021, lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab ntawm cov tuam txhab uas tsis yog lub tuam txhab saum toj no plaub yuav yog 5,000 tons.Vim tias tsis muaj kev nkag siab txog cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom ntawm txhua lub tuam txhab, nws tau xav tias qhov no yuav muaj peev xwm tsim tau 5,000 tons hauv ib xyoos txij li xyoo 2022 txog 2025.
Raws li cov peev txheej tsim tawm txawv teb chaws, nws tau kwv yees tias kev tsim tawm txawv teb chaws polysilicon xyoo 2025 yuav yog li ntawm 176,000 tons, piv txwv tias kev siv tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv polysilicon txawv teb chaws tseem tsis hloov pauv.Tom qab tus nqi ntawm polysilicon tau nce siab heev hauv 2021, Suav tuam txhab tau nce ntau lawm thiab nthuav ntau lawm.Qhov sib txawv, cov tuam txhab txawv teb chaws tau ceev faj ntau dua hauv lawv cov phiaj xwm rau cov haujlwm tshiab.Qhov no yog vim qhov kev tswj hwm ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon twb nyob rau hauv kev tswj ntawm Tuam Tshoj, thiab qhov muag tsis pom kev ntau lawm yuav ua rau poob.Los ntawm tus nqi, kev siv hluav taws xob yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov nqi ntawm polysilicon, yog li tus nqi hluav taws xob tseem ceeb heev, thiab Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan thiab lwm thaj chaw muaj qhov zoo tshaj plaws.Los ntawm qhov kev thov sab, raws li qhov ncaj qha downstream ntawm polysilicon, Tuam Tshoj tus silicon wafer ntau lawm tso nyiaj rau ntau tshaj 99% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho.Kev lag luam downstream ntawm polysilicon feem ntau yog nyob hauv Suav teb.Tus nqi ntawm polysilicon tsim yog tsawg, tus nqi tsheb thauj mus los tsawg, thiab qhov kev thov tau lav tag nrho.Qhov thib ob, Tuam Tshoj tau txiav txim siab los tiv thaiv cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv hnub ci-qib polysilicon los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb, uas tau txwv tsis pub noj polysilicon los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb.Ceev faj hauv kev tsim cov haujlwm tshiab;Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, Tuam Tshoj txawv teb chaws polysilicon tuam txhab lag luam tau qeeb los tsim vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov nqi se, thiab qee cov kab ntau lawm tau raug txo los sis tseem raug kaw, thiab lawv cov kev faib ua feem hauv ntiaj teb kev tsim khoom tau poob qis txhua xyoo, yog li lawv yuav tsis muab piv rau qhov nce hauv cov nqi polysilicon hauv 2021 raws li Suav tuam txhab tau txais txiaj ntsig siab, cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus los txhawb nws txoj kev nthuav dav sai thiab loj ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm.
Raws li kev kwv yees ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm hauv Suav teb thiab txawv teb chaws los ntawm 2022 txog 2025, qhov kwv yees tus nqi ntawm lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm tuaj yeem suav nrog.Nws tau kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav ncav cuag 1.371 lab tons.Raws li kev kwv yees tus nqi ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev sib koom ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev faib ua feem tuaj yeem kwv yees tau.Nws cia siab tias feem ntawm Tuam Tshoj yuav maj mam nthuav tawm los ntawm 2022 txog 2025, thiab nws yuav dhau 87% hauv 2025.
6, Summary thiab Outlook
Polysilicon nyob hauv qab ntawm cov khoom siv silicon thiab sab saud ntawm tag nrho photovoltaic thiab semiconductor kev lag luam saw, thiab nws cov xwm txheej tseem ceeb heev.Cov saw hlau kev lag luam photovoltaic feem ntau yog polysilicon-silicon wafer-cell-module-photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm, thiab cov khoom lag luam semiconductor feem ntau yog polysilicon-monocrystalline silicon wafer-silicon wafer-chip.Kev siv sib txawv muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov purity ntawm polysilicon.Kev lag luam photovoltaic feem ntau siv hnub ci-qib polysilicon, thiab kev lag luam semiconductor siv hluav taws xob-qib polysilicon.Tus qub muaj qhov purity ntau ntawm 6N-8N, thaum lub tom kawg yuav tsum muaj purity ntawm 9N lossis ntau dua.
Tau ntau xyoo, cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb ntawm polysilicon tau txhim kho Siemens txoj kev thoob plaws ntiaj teb.Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, qee lub tuam txhab tau nquag tshawb nrhiav tus nqi qis dua silane fluidized txaj txoj kev, uas yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov qauv tsim.Cov pas nrig zoo li polysilicon tsim los ntawm kev hloov Siemens txoj kev muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob siab, tus nqi siab thiab siab purity, thaum lub granular silicon uas tsim los ntawm silane fluidized txaj txoj kev muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob tsawg, tus nqi qis thiab qis purity. .Qee lub tuam txhab hauv Suav teb tau paub txog kev tsim khoom loj ntawm granular silicon thiab thev naus laus zis ntawm kev siv granular silicon los rub polysilicon, tab sis nws tsis tau nthuav dav.Txawm hais tias granular silicon tuaj yeem hloov qhov qub yav tom ntej nyob ntawm seb tus nqi kom zoo dua tuaj yeem npog qhov tsis zoo, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev siv qis qis, thiab kev txhim kho silane kev nyab xeeb.Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm tau nce xyoo los ntawm lub xyoo, thiab maj mam sib sau ua ke ntawm Tuam Tshoj.Los ntawm 2017 txog 2021, lub ntiaj teb txhua xyoo polysilicon ntau lawm yuav nce los ntawm 432,000 tons mus rau 631,000 tons, nrog kev loj hlob sai tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv 2021. Thaum lub sij hawm lub sij hawm, lub ntiaj teb no polysilicon ntau lawm maj mam ntau thiab ntau concentrated rau Tuam Tshoj, thiab Tuam Tshoj feem ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm nce los ntawm 56.02% hauv 2017 txog 80.03% hauv 2021. Los ntawm 2022 txog 2025, cov khoom siv ntawm polysilicon yuav ua rau muaj kev loj hlob loj.Nws kwv yees tias polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav yog 1.194 lab tons hauv Suav teb, thiab kev tsim tawm txawv teb chaws yuav ncav cuag 176,000 tons.Yog li, lub ntiaj teb polysilicon ntau lawm hauv 2025 yuav yog li ntawm 1.37 lab tons.
(Cov kab lus no tsuas yog siv rau UrbanMines'cov neeg siv khoom thiab tsis sawv cev rau cov lus qhia peev)